OBAMA VS MCCAIN

McCain vs. Obama: What to Expect

By John C. Fortier Friday, June 6, 2008

Filed under: Government & Politics
Each candidate has at least one major weakness that could conceivably sway the outcome in November.

Now that the Obama-McCain race is on, it is not hard to find examples of Democratic and Republican triumphalism. McCain can’t win, say Democrats: the Republican brand is shot; McCain would represent a third term for George W. Bush; and he would be the oldest president to assume the office. Obama can’t win, say Republicans: he stumbled to the finish line, losing many primaries down the stretch; the Clinton-Obama race has divided Democrats; and he can’t win white working class and Hispanic voters.

Both sides make a persuasive case, and that is why it is likely to be a close race in the fall.


Republicans who have long complained about John McCain’s apostasies should be jumping for joy that he is their nominee. Yes, it is true that McCain has made a career of poking the Republican establishment in the eye, while working with Democrats on issues such as campaign finance reform and global warming. It is also true that McCain ran to Bush’s left in the 2000 GOP primary campaign. For these reasons, many voters perceive McCain as more moderate than your average Republican—and closer to the political center than Barack Obama, as a recent Pew poll showed. Because of his longstanding status as a maverick, McCain is very difficult to label as a “Bush clone” or a “Washington insider.” That will undoubtedly help him in November.



But will McCain’s independent streak be enough to offset the massive unpopularity of the Republican brand? When asked whether they want a Republican or a Democrat for president (with no names attached), Americans favor Democrats by 10 or 12 percentage points. By similar margins, they favor keeping Democrats in control of Congress. Eighty percent of Americans think the country is on the wrong track. It’s been many years since Democrats boasted such a large advantage in party identification. The Iraq war is still broadly unpopular. And no matter who wins the presidential race, Republicans are likely to see significant losses in the House and the Senate. One simple way of analyzing the 2008 election is to consider if McCain’s moderation can overcome voter distaste for Republicans.



Will McCain’s independent streak be enough to offset the massive unpopularity of the Republican brand?

But let’s not forget Obama. He is one of the most impressive, yet also enigmatic, figures in recent political history. He will bring great strengths to the election, especially in his appeal to young, upscale, educated, independent, and African-American voters, and he may bring these voters to the polls in great numbers. He is a candidate who stands for “change” in a year when voters are disgusted with the status quo. He has generated enormous enthusiasm for his campaign, which can be seen in voter turnout, the size of his political rallies, and the tremendous amount of money he has raised, mostly from small donations. Obama is certain to outspend John McCain; the only question is by how much.



But the Clinton-Obama race also revealed potential difficulties for Obama. Clinton’s strength among Hispanic and white working-class voters was also Obama’s weakness. In late contests, when Obama seemed the likely nominee, Clinton’s white working-class supporters turned out and voted for her in high numbers in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and West Virginia. Some of that vote can be attributed to racial attitudes. But much of Obama’s trouble with the white working class reflects a deeper problem that other Democratic presidential candidates have faced. Bill Clinton had a special appeal to these voters, which explains why he could win states in parts of the South and the Midwest. John Kerry, Michael Dukakis, and to some extent Al Gore did not. While Democrats have long argued that the white working class should vote Democratic for economic reasons, Republicans have tended to win this vote on social, moral, and patriotism issues.



If it does come down to a close election as we have seen in 2000 and 2004, then the key “Rust Belt” and Midwestern states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Missouri will loom large, and white working-class voters are well represented in these states. Of course, if Obama’s appeal is so broad that he wins the national popular vote by 3 points or more, then he’ll carry enough states to win the election easily. But if it is closer than that, Obama’s weakness with white working-class voters may be his undoing.



The bottom line is that there is a push and pull in both directions. The polls today show that Obama and McCain are essentially tied. June polls are not a reliable predictor of November success (Dukakis was up by double digits over George H.W. Bush at this time in 1988). But they suggest that, at least for now, the combination of McCain’s maverick image and Obama’s weaknesses has helped the Arizona senator to defy the electorate’s anti-Republican mood.

John C. Fortier is a research fellow at the The American Enterprise Institute.